The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable 2nd Edition

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable 2nd Edition book cover

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable 2nd Edition

Author(s): Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author)

  • Publisher: Penguin
  • Publication Date: 28 Feb. 2010
  • Edition: 2nd
  • Language: English
  • Print length: 394 pages
  • ISBN-10: 0141034599
  • ISBN-13: 9780141034591

Book Description

The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything – and take advantage of uncertainty

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?

This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they’re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.

‘Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide … I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person’ Will Self, Independent on Sunday

‘He leaps like some superhero of the mind’ Boyd Tonkin, Independent

Editorial Reviews

Review

A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected ― Guardian

Like the conversation of a raconteur … hugely enjoyable – compelling ― Financial Times

It has altered modern thinking ― The Times

Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot ― Sunday Times

The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works — Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow

Great fun… brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling — Stephen J. Dubner, co-author of Freakonomics

The most prophetic voice of all ― GQ

From the Inside Flap

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great’s lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they’re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the ‘experts’, The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything – and take advantage of uncertainty.

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