Wrong Number: How to Extract Truth From a Blizzard of Quantitative Disinformation

Praise for WRONG NUMBER

“Wrong number fallacies flourish because people who just want to figure out the truth are vastly outnumbered by those who want to advance pet causes. Aaron Brown will show you how to flush out the charlatans and will make you chortle through the entire process. What more could you ask of a teacher!”
―PHILIP TETLOCK, Professor and author of Expert Political Judgment and Superforecasting

“I am thrilled that readers will learn that buying a gun in Connecticut and taking prescription opioids aren’t as dangerous as studies say, the climate apocalypse probably isn’t coming in the next four years and ‘greedflation’ really isn‘t even a thing. Aaron Brown doesn’t just admonish, he teaches and entertains. If more people read this book the world would be a better place, maybe a lot better.”
―CLIFF ASNESS, Founding and Managing Principal, AQR Capital Management

“Wrong Number is an important book. Brown demonstrates the many ways we misunderstand and misinterpret data?and how frequently we succumb to those peddling stories based on misleading figures. As the world becomes more quantitative, Brown shows that proper quantitative?analysis is more crucial than ever.”
―GREGORY ZUCKERMAN, Special Writer, The Wall Street Journal and author of The Man Who Solved the Market

“As enlightening as it is unsettling, Wrong Number shows how the experts, along with negligent journalists, have perpetuated false narratives across nearly every domain of modern life. From gun policy to the opioid epidemic to the reality of American foreign aid, Brown reveals that some of the towering truths the establishment has told us collapse into a rubble of sophistry under even slight scrutiny. Although Brown is a seasoned statistician, Wrong Number’s most vital message is a democratic one: a layperson needs only a dose of skepticism and a modicum of critical thinking to spot flagrant errors in some of the most prestigious studies and ‘truisms’ that shape public policy and our lives.”
―DAVID ZWEIG, Investigative Journalist and author of An Abundance of Caution

“My fervent hope for the health of the democratic system is that Wrong Number will be widely read by people of all political persuasions. The less that public opinion is swayed by incompetent or deliberately deceptive research studies, the better our chances of arriving at socially optimal policies. Happily, the likelihood that this book will reach a wide audience is enhanced by its attention to headline-making issues and its accessibility to individuals without deep, specialized knowledge of statistical methods. Plus, it is fun to read.”
―MARTIN FRIDSON, Publisher, Income Securities Investor

“In an era drowning in data but starving for wisdom, Aaron Brown?s Wrong Number is the life raft we desperately need. With the precision of a seasoned quantitative analyst and the wit of a natural storyteller, Brown exposes how spectacularly wrong our most trusted sources can be―and more importantly, teaches us how to think for ourselves. Wrong Number will transform how you engage with the quantitative claims that shape our world. This book isn’t just important―it’s indispensable.”
―VICTOR HAGHANI, Founder of Elm Wealth

AARON BROWN has used numbers to make bets and investigate questions all his life. He was playing poker in tavern backrooms and winning at the horse races while still in middle school. He was one of the top professional poker players in the 1970s and 80s, and is also successful in sports betting, advantage casino play and prediction market trading. Brown moved to Wall Street in the early 1980s to use the same skills as a trader, portfolio manager, head of mortgage securities and risk manager for top global financial institutions. He is a former Chief Risk Officer at AQR and winner of the 2011 GARP Risk Manager of the Year award. Brown holds degrees in applied mathematics from Harvard and finance and statistics from the University of Chicago. He has taught mathematics and finance at New York University, Columbia, and other institutions. Brown publishes frequently in academic and professional literature, and has served as a statistician on hundreds of scientific studies. He has been a data and methodology reviewer for major scientific journals. His previous books are The Poker Face of Wall Street, Red-Blooded Risk, A World of Chance, and Financial Risk Management for Dummies.