US Foreign Policy and Presidential Leadership in an Age of Strategic Uncertainty

As the international system undergoes its most profound reordering since the end of the Cold War, the assumptions that once anchored America’s global role are no longer analytically sufficient. Intensifying great-power rivalry, the weaponization of economic leverage, and accelerating geoeconomic polarization are reshaping the strategic environment faster than inherited explanatory frames can account for. This book advances a new conceptual architecture for interpreting US foreign policy — transformative depth — to distinguish among the policies that presidential administrations employ to reconstitute, reform, or stabilize the international order, or to minimize US engagement in its management. The framework clarifies the deeper logics through which the United States positions herself amid a tumultuous global transformation.

At the center of the study is a reconsideration of the modern presidency as a structurally pivotal force during periods of systemic inflection. Through a comparative examination of the leadership styles and decision-making practices of Presidents Obama, Trump, and Biden, the book shows how personality traits and professional backgrounds interact with external pressures to produce distinct trajectories in foreign, economic, and security policy. The result is a theoretically original and empirically grounded account of American statecraft in an era of global strategic uncertainty.

Dr. Sergey Smolnikov teaches International Relations at York University, Canada, and previously served as Full Professor of International Relations at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) in Tokyo, Japan. He specializes in international security, international political economy, and the geopolitical and geoeconomic transformations reshaping the contemporary international order.

His research focuses on US foreign and security policy, great-power competition, US–China relations, NATO and transatlantic relations, technological rivalry, international trade, and the role of presidential leadership and foreign-policy decision-making in global strategy. His work bridges theoretical innovation with policy-relevant analysis of major-power behavior in an era of strategic uncertainty.

Smolnikov is the author of Great Power Conduct and Credibility in World Politics (2018), which develops the Theory of Power Credibility—a novel conceptual framework explaining how great powers respond to relative decline by seeking to maximize the credibility of their images of power and strategic influence.

Dr. Sergey Smolnikov teaches International Relations at York University, Canada, and previously served as Full Professor of International Relations at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) in Tokyo, Japan. He specializes in international security, international political economy, and the geopolitical and geoeconomic transformations reshaping the contemporary international order.

His research focuses on US foreign and security policy, great-power competition, US–China relations, NATO and transatlantic relations, technological rivalry, international trade, and the role of presidential leadership and foreign-policy decision-making in global strategy. His work bridges theoretical innovation with policy-relevant analysis of major-power behavior in an era of strategic uncertainty.

Smolnikov is the author of Great Power Conduct and Credibility in World Politics (2018), which develops the Theory of Power Credibility—a novel conceptual framework explaining how great powers respond to relative decline by seeking to maximize the credibility of their images of power and strategic influence.