Dr Harald Winkler is Associate Professor at the Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town. He is also the lead author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group III for the Fourth Member of the South African delegation to the negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. He is the author of Cleaner Energy, Cooler Climate (HSRC Press, 2008).

Taking Action on Climate Change

Long Term Mitigation Scenarios for South Africa

By Harald Winkler, David Merrington, Jacques Nel Drag and Drop

Juta and Company (Pty) Ltd

Copyright © 2010 UCT Press
All rights reserved.
ISBN: 978-1-919895-25-3

Contents

List of tables,
List of figures,
Acronyms, abbreviations and units,
Acknowledgements,
Chapter One: Introduction,
Chapter Two: Developing a model of GHG emissions,
Chapter Three: The Gap: Where emissions are going and need to go,
Chapter Four: Taking action on mitigation,
Chapter Five: Emission reductions and costs in summary,
Chapter Six: Strategic options for South Africa,
Chapter Seven: Sensitivity analysis,
Chapter Eight: Conclusion: The challenge ahead,
References,
Index,

CHAPTER 1

Introduction

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to our planet and to our people. South Africa is especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. At the same time, South Africa emits large quantities of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) that are causing climate change. In fact, this country is one of the highest emitters per capita per GDP in the world. South Africa is both a contributor to the problem and its victim.

This book outlines a unique process, the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS) for South Africa, which was undertaken to address the challenge of reducing GHG emissions. It outlines a blend of research and process that built on South Africa’s distinctive post-1994 democratic culture of consultation. The LTMS brought together business, labour, NGOs and government to remarkable levels of consensus around a set of evidence-based scenarios for reducing our greenhouse gas emissions.

Why a Long Term Mitigation Scenario process?

South Africa is an active participant in the international process of combating climate change and regulating the emissions of greenhouse gases. It is a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change as well as the Kyoto Protocol. South Africa takes the issue of climate change very seriously and has shown leadership in the UN negotiations. In the negotiations our actions must speak as loudly as our words: we need to show leadership by example. This we can do by preparing a course of action for our country.

The link between our own emissions and climate change impacts is indirect. Compared to our own emissions, the emissions of larger economies are far more significant to the climate change impacts that South Africa will suffer. However, South Africa will not be able to influence the emissions reduction efforts of those countries without a reduction plan of its own which is respected as appropriate and real. Yet there is an indirect but very powerful connection — if we do not act, other countries are less likely to act and ultimately the negative impacts will affect everyone.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, at least until 2012, South Africa, together with other developing countries, has no binding greenhouse gas mitigation obligations. However, this is likely to change some time after 2012, and it means that at some point South Africa will be required to start cutting its emissions. South Africa is in fact already formulating plans to reduce GHG emissions.

The LTMS process, both in facilitated stakeholder dialogue and rigorous research, was South Africa’s approach to preparing for this formidable challenge. Before we consider the findings of the LTMS in the rest of this book, I would like to tell the story of the process briefly.