Prediction Markets Made Simple: The Complete Beginner's Guide to Polymarket and Kalshi

Over $20 billion was traded on prediction markets in 2024. Most people have no idea this market even exists.

Prediction Markets Made Simple is the complete beginner's guide to Polymarket and Kalshi — the two platforms transforming how the world forecasts elections, economics, and world events.

What you'll learn:

• What prediction markets are and why they outperform polls, pundits, and traditional forecasting
• How to open accounts on both Polymarket (crypto-based) and Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)
• How contracts are priced, how to read implied probability, and how to spot mispriced markets
• The Superforecaster framework — the proven habits of the world's most accurate forecasters
• How to size positions intelligently using the Kelly Criterion
• Step-by-step walkthroughs of your first trade on both platforms
• A full Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison: fees, regulation, deposits, and best use cases

No crypto experience required for the Kalshi chapters. No finance background required for any of it.

Whether you're a curious investor, a news junkie who wants to put your predictions to work, or simply someone who wants to understand why prediction markets are considered the most accurate forecasting tool available — this book gives you everything you need to go from zero to your first informed trade.

Includes a bonus Quick Reference Sheet, a Glossary of key terms, and a complete platform comparison table.