The Art of Coercion: Credible Threats and the Assurance Dilemma

The Assurance Dilemma is a major contribution to deterrence and coercion theory. Reid Pauly’s rich case studies of nuclear decision-making in South Africa, Iraq, Libya, and Iran take the reader inside adversaries’ minds, to understand how they saw the world, not just how US leaders saw them.

— Scott D. Sagan, Stanford University

Deeply researched and insightful, The Art of Coercion contributes significantly to the literature on and real-world practice of coercion. Reid Pauly’s case studies draw on new sources and interviews, and demonstrate the power of his theory.

— Charles L. Glaser, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Reid Pauly’s book is an incredibly important advance in thinking about coercion, exploring previously overlooked assurance elements. It could not come at a more important time as the policy salience of this issue burgeons and we have all thought too little about the circumstances conducive to successful coercion.

— Kori Schake, American Enterprise Institute

In this landmark study, Reid Pauly challenges conventional wisdom regarding nuclear programs and threats of force. Pauly’s book is a service to academics and policymakers alike, and his use of archival documents and interviews provide fascinating insight into the surprising results of US efforts to stop nuclear proliferation.

— Stacie E. Goddard, Wellesley College

Too often international relations theory and foreign policy strategy over-focus on threats and various modes of cost imposition in conflict situations. Through sharp analysis and well-researched cases, Reid Pauly shows how credible assurance is no less crucial than credible threats to effective deterrence, compellence and other coercive strategies.

— Bruce W. Jentleson, Duke University

Too often international relations theory and foreign policy strategy over-focus on threats and various modes of cost imposition in conflict situations. Through sharp analysis and well-researched cases, Reid Pauly shows how credible assurance is no less crucial than credible threats to effective deterrence, compellence and other coercive strategies.

— Bruce W. Jentleson, Duke University