Forecast Verification
A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science
by: Jolliffe Ian T; Stephenson David B
Hardcover: 304 pages
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons (January 25, 2012)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0470660716
ISBN-13: 9780470660713
Book Description
Forecast Verification:A Practioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas.
Reviews of first edition:
“This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems.” (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004)
“..a good mixture of theory and practical applications..well organized and clearly written..” (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005)
NEW to the second edition:
Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area
New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts
Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Waings
Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts
Includes new Appendix on Verification Software
Cover image credit:The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of teary categories – see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of teary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).
Content:
Chapter 1 Introduction (pages 1–9):Ian T. Jolliffe and David B. Stephenson
Chapter 2 Basic Concepts (pages 11–29):Jacqueline M. Potts
Chapter 3 Deterministic Forecasts of Binary Events (pages 31–59):Robin J. Hogan and Ian B. Mason
Chapter 4 Deterministic Forecasts of Multi?Category Events (pages 61–75):Robert E. Livezey
Chapter 5 Deterministic Forecasts of Continuous Variables (pages 77–94):Michel Deque
Chapter 6 Forecasts of Spatial Fields (pages 95–117):Barbara G. Brown, Eric Gilleland and Elizabeth E. Ebert
Chapter 7 Probability Forecasts (pages 119–139):Jochen Broecker
Chapter 8 Ensemble Forecasts (pages 141–166):Andreas P. Weigel
Chapter 9 Economic Value and Skill (pages 167–184):David S. Richardson
Chapter 10 Deterministic Forecasts of Extreme Events and Waings (pages 185–201):Christopher A. T. Ferro and David B. Stephenson
Chapter 11 Seasonal and Longer?Range Forecasts (pages 203–220):Simon J. Mason
Chapter 12 Epilogue:New Directions in Forecast Verification (pages 221–230):Ian T. Jolliffe and David B. Stephenson
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